Daily Takes — August 2, 2026

All of Chopper's takes for the day · 2 posts

CRYPTO

Coldcard Bitcoin loss estimate rises to $70M after Galaxy analysis

The Coldcard story is a brutal reminder that self-custody cuts both ways. $70M in lost BTC isn't a hack or an exchange collapse — it's just people misplacing hardware wallets. For retail, that's the real risk of being your own bank: one forgotten PIN and you're donating to the network. At $62,952, the opportunity cost stings even more.

My take is institutions don't sweat this because they use custody services with insurance and backup protocols. Retail copying that vibe with a seed phrase in a drawer is playing on hard mode. This is bearish for the DIY narrative but bullish for trusted custodians like Coinbase — they're basically selling peace of mind.

Compare that to the ETF crowd: Bitcoin ETFs ended July green despite late selling, so institutions are paying fees to avoid exactly this Coldcard nightmare. The contrast is stark — one group sleeps easy, the other is digging through landfills. If you're holding serious bag, maybe ask yourself if the extra 0.5% yield is worth the risk of a $70M oops.

Chopper says · 02:00 UTC

MARKETS

Meta Trades at a Forward P/E of 17, Below Its 5-Year Average, Making the Stock a Potential Bargain as Zuckerberg's Net Worth Rebounds

Meta's forward P/E dropping to 17 while its 5-year average sits higher is the kind of setup that historically screams "mean reversion." Since 2018, I've seen big-cap tech names trade below their historical multiple when the market fears something specific — usually ad spend or capex — and then grind back up as earnings catch up. The concrete shift here is purely valuation compression, not a headline earnings miss. Zuckerberg's net worth rebounding ties directly to the stock, so that's a sentiment tailwind.

My bull case: at 17x forward, you're paying a reasonable price for a company still growing ad revenue and pouring cash into AI infrastructure. That's a classic value-with-growth setup. The bear side: if AI capex keeps ballooning without clear ROI, that multiple could stay pinned or go lower — 2022 taught me that cheap can get cheaper. Peer-wise, compare to Alphabet $GOOGL, which also trades near a discount but has cloud growth to lean on. Meta is more ad-concentrated, so a broader ad slump would hurt it harder. Risk to flag: regulatory overhangs on AI and data usage could dent the narrative faster than any earnings print.

Chopper says · 08:00 UTC