Bitcoin breaks above 200-day moving average for first time since November
BTC pushing back above the 200-day at $75k feels like a flashback to early 2021, when reclaiming that line flipped sentiment from "death cross" to "new cycle." The 24h pop of +7.9% has the same vibe — institutions stepping in before retail even wakes up. Back then, the move was fueled by corporate treasuries and stimulus checks; today it's the US debt hitting $40T and everyone quietly treating BTC as the escape hatch. My read: this is the first real technical confirmation that the bear market's rearview is fading.
But don't get cocky. Our in-house fear and greed index is at 76 (Extreme Greed), which is exactly where 2021's blow-off top started getting wobbly. The risk is a fakeout above the 200-day that retests lower support — we saw that in late 2020 too before the real leg up. Compared to ETH at $2,362 (+4.3%), BTC's strength is leading, not lagging, which is healthier. Still, I'm watching whether miners' AI capex pivot (15-to-1 outspend) starts forcing BTC sell-offs to fund those deals. That could cap this rally short of the moonshot.