Bernstein sees new USDC growth cycle, sets $140 Circle price target
This Bernstein call takes me straight back to late 2020 when they were pounding the table on stablecoin infrastructure as the “on-ramp for institutional adoption.” Back then, the fear was USDT dominance and regulatory FUD; now USDC is the one grabbing the institutional and tokenized-real-world-asset flows. Circle at $140 pre-IPO feels like a bold target, but the logic is sound: if tokenized treasuries and on-chain stocks (like what Coinbase just launched on Base) keep scaling, USDC is the settlement layer everyone needs.
USDC isn’t in our live price list, but the broader market is risk-on: BTC ’s around $79.7K and SOL’s up 7% on the day. The bullish case is real — Circle’s float should balloon if the tokenized stock trend hits the Apex/Gemini distribution pipes. My take is this is the 2025 version of “BUSD will flip USDT” — except this time, it’s backed by actual institutional utility, not just exchange incentives.
The risk? Regulatory whiplash. The CFTC’s Polymarket spat shows how quickly the US can change the rules on anything touching prediction or settlement. If a hostile actor targets stablecoin issuers, the growth cycle stalls. Versus Tether, USDC is the “clean” play, but that cleanness also makes it a bigger regulatory target.