Bitcoin Market Thermometer
Data as of 2026-07-28 · updated daily · composite of 9 on-chain indicators as historical percentiles
24°
Cool
0 Deep-freeze50 Neutral100 Overheated
The 9 components
| Indicator | Value | Percentile | Plain-English read |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | 0.43 | 23% | Historically this range clustered in late bear markets |
| AVIV Ratio | 0.829 | 19% | Active-coin valuation sits in its historical low range |
| NUPL | 0.179 | 19% | Unrealized profits are thin — historically a bottom-zone trait |
| Puell Multiple | 0.717 | 21% | Miner revenue is well below its long-run average, historically overlapping bottom zones |
| Mayer Multiple | 0.887 | 26% | Price sits well below the 200-day average — a historically cold zone |
| SOPR | 0.9976 | 22% | Coins are moving at a loss on-chain, historically common near bottoms |
| Price / CVDD floor | 4.73× | 14% | Price's premium over the CVDD floor is at a historical low (the floor itself has rarely been breached) |
| Price / LTH cost basis | 1.30× | 18% | Price's premium over long-term holders' cost basis is at a historical low, where sell pressure historically dried up |
| Chopper Fear & Greed | 53 | 53% | In its historical mid-range — no extreme signal |
Percentile = where today's value sits within ~4 years of history. 5% means lower than 95% of history. CVDD and LTH cost are floor-type metrics, so their percentile uses the price-to-floor ratio.
How to read it
0-20 Deep-freeze: most indicators sit in the coldest 20% of their history. Late 2022 and March 2020 landed here — late-bear phases in hindsight, deeply pessimistic in the moment.
40-60 Neutral: indicators hover near historical medians. No extreme signals — the market's default state most of the time.
80-100 Overheated: most indicators sit in the hottest 20% of their history. The two 2021 peaks and the euphoric stretches of 2024 landed here — rich unrealized profits, greedy sentiment.
Once more: the thermometer describes where today sits versus history, not what happens next. Extremes can reverse quickly or persist for months.
FAQ
How is the thermometer calculated?
Eight on-chain indicators (MVRV Z-Score, AVIV, NUPL, Puell, Mayer, SOPR, price/CVDD, price/LTH cost) are each converted to their ~4-year historical percentile, plus our in-house Fear & Greed index. The nine components are equally weighted and averaged into a 0-100 temperature.
Does cold mean buy and hot mean sell?
No. The thermometer only states where each indicator sits within its own history. Past patterns are not guarantees, and indicators can stay extreme for long stretches. Nothing here is investment advice — do your own research.
How often does it update, and from what sources?
Daily. On-chain metrics come from a public data API (bitcoin-data.com); the Fear & Greed index is computed in-house from momentum, trend, volatility and volume; prices come from public market-data APIs.
Why percentiles instead of raw values?
The indicators live on wildly different scales. Percentiles put them on one ruler: 50% is the historical median, 5% means lower than 95% of history — comparable across indicators with no arbitrary thresholds.
Everything on this page is an objective statistical presentation of historical data — not investment advice, and not a prediction. Digital assets are highly volatile; do your own research. On-chain data: bitcoin-data.com; the Fear & Greed index and the composite methodology are built in-house.